🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."